Early Vegas spreads for the 2021 faculty soccer season present Penn State is the favourite on the road
The 2021 college football season will start no longer than three months. But that doesn’t stop the business of sport from turning. And one of its growth sectors is gambling.
That’s why the first point for a few dozen of Friday’s most notable games by South Point Sports Book odds maker Chris Andrews came out with a predictable response – lots of early bets.
The opening lines of South Point’s “Games of the Year” include five with Penn State. I’m going to be giving you the games here and not immediately revealing the spreads so that you (in case you haven’t seen them already) can play along with a game from BoFlo I usually play on during Thursday’s Blue / White Breakdown podcast on the Participate in the season. See if you can guess the lines:
September 4th: Penn State @ Wisconsin
September 18: Auburn @ Penn State
October 9: Penn State @ Iowa
October 30: Penn State @ Ohio State
Nov 13: Michigan @ Penn State
Wow, there’s a lot to chew on here. First, a little background and history about early lines, courtesy of our friend, Altoona-born, semi-retired quota maker Tony Sinisi, who still lives in Las Vegas.
Not so long ago, the spreads for selected college football games were published in June at the earliest, then usually by The Golden Nugget Casino. But as betting became more accepted and widespread, the big books decided to whet the appetite of recreational gamblers and professionals alike.
According to Sinisi, these early lines are not particularly profit centers for the books, something because not many players play them that early, also because it is so difficult to pinpoint the lines before summer training camps have even started. Now add the wild transience of the transfer portal and it’s a crap shoot:
“It’s partly a courtesy and partly just to get people interested in something [betting] College football. I don’t know if it’s a great money maker. But big fans, weather, love the early lines. They really do. “
South Point is more aggressive than most houses so they are ready to post spreads to create a buzz in a relatively dead time for those not interested in winter sports playoffs. The early numbers are at best considered a wash for sports betting, a compromise between winning and gossip. As Sinisi said, it’s not easy to place the spread when so much can happen before September, let alone in the following months of the season:
“Let’s say you do a bad number at Texas A&M before week 3, learn that number, and adjust it the next week. But if you are wrong on these points [ultra-early lines] Now it’s not just one game, it can be four or five, or whatever number there are. It extrapolates from. If you’re wrong, you’re really wrong. You will be pinned to each of them. “
Because of this, Sinisi said, early money bets on these lines are typically used by well-informed bets who have booked on certain teams and who at least believe they know a little more about them than they do about the houses. For bookmakers, it’s more about advertising than profit:
“I would say 90 percent of the money [bet on ultra-early lines] is wiseguy money. It could even be higher. Educated bettors who do this for a living and are demanding.
“If you struggle with that, it’s no fun. You want the general public, the tourists, and what did you get involved with? And they will be one day. “
And for Penn State Wiseguys and Squares there are actually five games to choose from. So let’s get back to these lines and we’ll see how you guessed it.
Keep in mind that sometimes, especially when programs with particularly large and dedicated fan bases are involved, odds makers will set the number a point or two more for that team than they normally would in the hope that Wiseguys will throw money at the opponent early on. The goal then is to get the devoted places, who bet with their hearts rather than their minds, to flood the house with later money for dear old state. The state of U. Penn is notorious for attracting such bets.
So here are all of the South Point lines for the five PSU games that have been released. Let’s see how you did it:
Penn State (+3) @ Wisconsin
Auburn @ Penn State (-3½)
Penn State (+1) @ Iowa
Penn State (+12) @ Ohio State
Michigan @ Penn State (-7)
So the Nittany Lions are classified as home heroes. They are street dogs in all three marquee games. But they are not only a major home favorite against Michigan, but also in the highly anticipated whiteout showdown with perennial SEC rival Auburn.
Of course, the difference between May’s perceptions and November realities can be a huge gap, as anyone who has studied Penn State Football for a long time can testify.
More PennLive sports coverage:
• “Hey, Jones!”: The 76s’ staple, Penn State’s gender-neutral terms that catch ugly road trip germs.
• Kenny Mayne never took the sports business that seriously, and that’s why ESPN decided he had to leave.
• Jay Wright is the proof: Every now and then nice guys not only finish first place, but also enter the Hall of Fame.