Greatest Three set large receiver teams for fantasy soccer

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  • Mike ClayESPN author

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    • Fantasy Football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
    • Member of Pro Football Writers of America
    • Founding Director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
    • 2013 FSTA prizewinner for the most accurate rankings of the previous season

The NFL is evolving as our fantasy analysis requires.

In 2007, NFL offenses had three or more wide receivers on the field in 55% of passing games. This number reached an all-time high of 76% in 2016 and was 73% in each of the last two seasons.

The drastic change in staffing has resulted in fewer wasted snaps with full-backs (multiple RB rates dropped from 27% to 9% during the span) and more use and aiming for wide receivers who were once considered bankers but are now de facto Starter in most systems.

By evaluating the staffing of each team and coach, we can determine which snap counts the player is getting a boost – and those who will see a decline. Of course, it’s not that easy to just look at the numbers from last season, because squad fluctuations and, above all, changes in coaches will certainly have an effect.

Below is a projection of how often each offense will have three or more wide receivers on the field in 2021, as well as a look at the players who will be hit hardest in the fantasy.

This evaluation of each offensive scheme can give you a head start over your league colleagues on draft day.

Note: Mentions of three plus wide receiver sets in this article apply to passing games only. The asterisk “*” represents the projected offensive gamecaller for each team.

1. Buffalo Notes
HC: Sean McDermott, OK: Brian Daboll *
Projected 3+ WR-rates: 90%

Buffalo is a good bet to repeat as the NFL leader in 3+ WR sets after finishing first in the category last season (94%) as well as second in 4+ WR sets (17%). Buffalo has ranked no better than 10th in 3+ WR sets since 2014, but Daboll’s offenses have checked in at 80% or more in each of his last three seasons.

Fantasy Spin: Buffalo did little in the offseason to fix the close ending position, so it’s safe to have a heavy dose of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and newcomer Emmanuel Sanders (who replaces John Brown) in the year Expected in 2021. Diggs and Beasley were both top 30 fantasy WRs last season, and sophomore Gabriel Davis has an excellent way of joining that mix. All he has to do is fend off 34-year-old Sanders for clear task # 3.

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