San Francisco 49ers 2021 Fantasy Soccer Sleeper, Breakout & Bust ⋆ Soccer Absurdity

Every summer we dive deep into the Fantasy Football Average Draft Position (ADP) of the players on every real-life NFL team. We do this so that we can determine which types are undervalued, overrated, or rated just right. As we create this ADP Goldilocks, our draft board is formed based on our opinions of players and their goals in fantasy football drafts. Since authors (mostly) design according to site algorithms, site algorithms control ADP on this site. Therefore, we use the aggregated average design position data from FantasyPros to smooth these edges. To really smooth out the edges I’ll be using the average half PPR design position that you can find here. We continue our streak with the 2021 San Francisco 49ers.

That was the article I was scared of. Not because I don’t like the San Francisco 49ers; But on the contrary. I’m a season ticket holder for the 49ers, and COVID-19 managed to never land in the stadium last year when they bottomed out. Almost like coronavirus, the team let me look at me through a pinhole camera. The 49ers are a team in transition trading the farm for the number 3 overall and Trey Lance (it was never Mac Jones, never. Anyway. I don’t care what Chris Simms said). While I would have preferred Justin Fields, Trey Lance is quite a consolation prize. The San Francisco 49ers also grabbed Trey Sermon in round three, their largest draft investment in a running back. It seems like the 49ers sent a message to both Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert: don’t get comfortable, you’ll find a new home in 2022.

But this isn’t an article outlining my concerns about the San Francisco 49ers, it’s a fantasy football sleep, breakout, and bust article. With that in mind, let’s dive into some of the 49ers’ fantasy football options for 2021!

Sleeper: JaMycal Hasty, Running Back (no ADP)

If you look at the running back room of the 49ers, there were only two running backs in the squad last year: Raheem Mostert and JaMycal Hasty. The offensive leads to a lot of productivity losses, but it also has a certain learning curve. That’s literally the only reason a new offensive (led by former 49ers offensive assistant Matt LaFleur, now Jets’ OC Matt LaFleur) that saw Tevin Coleman run up close and personal would sign him. The rest of the team are brand new to this, and while I trust they are up to date, I also believe that Hasty has a bigger stake in the role than most people think.

Hasty is a strong, determined run with very little loss of motion. Very little. When you watch him run, it feels like every step makes sense. That is exactly what Kyle Shanahan wants from a running back. Hasty only appeared in six limited edition games last year, so his numbers aren’t that exciting. He’s not someone you need to draw, just someone you should keep on your Rolodex. If the other backs fall to the floor, I’m not sure where Hasty fits in.

Breakout: Trey, running back and quarterback (Sermon RB48 / 135 OVR and Lance QB24 / 173 OVR)

The Kyle Shanahan Offense can produce some potent actors from relatively unknown types. But Kyle Shanahan didn’t do a great job getting the guys to maximize his offense (rather than having his guys maximize his offense). The Treys are double-billed for being asked to play off each other and maximize each other’s talents. Let’s start with Trey Lance, the quarterback.

Trey Lance’s number 1 compared to NDSU was Josh Allen. He’s tall, has a massive arm, and sometimes has scratches on his head. Fortunately, he can back up his bragging rights as he had no interceptions in 2019. In 2020, NDSU had a showcase game due to COVID and he pushed way too hard, resulting in picks. But Lance with the guns around him and the ability to rush has the ability to kick the door down as the top ten fantasy football quarterback. He’s better than Jalen Hurts in every way, and Hurts was a top ten quarterback in the three games he started and finished last year. He’s a must-have QB in all 2QB leagues and a great stash in lower leagues. It’s only a matter of time before he takes over Jimmy Garoppolo (I think after a possible three-game cut against the Packers / Cardinals / Seahawks earlier this year).

As for Trey Sermon, the man just doesn’t catch footballs, but that’s fine, Kyle Shanahan isn’t going to ask him to. But Sermon is a powerful one-cut-and-go-back that rams its way through wannabe staplers or runs away from them. He has stunning athleticism and a RAS of 9.66. Imagine a Kyle Shanahan offense that turns ordinary running backs into giants. Now hand that offensive over to an athletic freak who’s really good at football. Stash Trey Sermon, he could be a monster and a league winner if the 49ers left the team entirely to the kids.

Bust: Raheem Mostert, Running Back (RB25 / 60 OVR)

I like Raheem Mostert a lot. A few years ago, in early September, I made a “Hey, why are you getting Raheem Mostert for free” tweet about the Scott Fish Bowl. It paid off. Unfortunately, the year 2020 hit Raheem Mostert hard and showed the ups and downs of Mostert. Mostert had two 75+ touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season, cracking against the Cardinals and the Jets. Here’s the weird thing: these two games accounted for over 30% of his Fantasy Points in the Season (HPPR). Mostert just couldn’t stay healthy, and when he stayed healthy the 49ers just didn’t use him.

Raheem Mostert had A game over 50% of the snaps last season and that was the first week loss to the Cardinals. The 49ers’ penchant for mixing and matching backs took Mostert hard last season. That’s why he’s a bust for me. The 49ers had five different guys leading the team on running back touches last season and they went out and improved across the board. Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman and Jeff Wilson Jr. became Trey Sermon, Wayne Gallman and Elijah Mitchell. Mostert could be squeezed out right now.

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