Three potential bust candidates for 2021 (Fantasy Soccer)
In fantasy football, it is inevitable that some players will boom and others will go broke. In this article, “bust” refers to where a player ends up compared to your draft and what you expect from that investment. That doesn’t mean we’re predicting total failure for these players. Instead, always think of bust candidates in the context of their Average Design Position (ADP).
ADP is constantly changing as the off-season approaches the start of the regular season. A player who was expected to get off the board early may have fallen into a later round due to changed circumstances. Hence, if his ADP is low enough to reflect his overall performance, he can no longer be considered a failure candidate.
This year’s Ultimate Draft Kit details the ever-changing ADP and other potential failure candidates for 2021, so make sure you purchased the UDK to get access to all of the incredible features it has to offer. Also check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s potential Bust players on the Early Breakout and Busts podcast episode.
Josh Jacobs – RB Las Vegas Raiders
The first candidate on tap falls right on the threshold of no longer being considered a failure. Josh Jacobs’ ADP has dropped significantly in the past few weeks and he is currently being drafted in the 5th round in the half PPR. Nonetheless, I keep Jacobs in the potential failure candidate category, even though I could justify recruiting him on this current ADP.
The main reason I want to wave the red flags around Jacobs is because of the inclusion of RB Kenyan Drake of the Arizona Cardinals. Drake has been the eternal RB2 on every team he’s been on since college. At first glance, it may not seem like it is a serious threat to Jacobs’ volume. After all, the Raiders are a strong team and ranked 11th in the league in rush attempts in 2020 with 457. Jacobs claimed 273 of those tries for 1,065 yards and 12 touchdowns last year to finish 15 games 214.8 points ahead of the league’s RB9.
Drake ended up as RB14, just outside of the RB1 conversation. His numbers were similar to Jacobs’ with 239 tries, 955 yards and 10 touchdowns. Even their reception numbers were similar, only differing by eight receptions over the season. In fact, Drake was less than five points from being in the top 12 and just 35 points behind Jacobs. Even their red zone and 10 zone numbers were almost the same. You can find the Red Zone Report in this year’s Ultimate Draft Kit.
Drake is currently being drafted in the 9th round of the semi-PPR drafts. When I look at value, it is important to design Drake four rounds later than Jacobs to get similar fantasy degrees. While a round 5 pick is decent for the team’s RB1, I’m afraid Drake will have enough of the volume and goals to cut Jacobs’ production in 2021 compared to last year when he had little competition for Had rush attempts.
D’Andre Swift – RB Detroit Lions
Much like Jacobs, the next potential bust contestant is the sophomore darling, D’Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions. There are a lot of things that make me pause, like regime change in the organization, but my main concern is the inclusion of RB Jamaal Williams.
Swift had some explosive games in his rookie campaign and it was exciting to see what he could do on the field. Then the 2021 offseason happened and Williams was accepted into the group. This eagerness for the future production of Swift was noticeably dampened. Add in the lukewarm decaffeinated tea that is your new QB in Jared Goff and I don’t look at the 2021 Lions with any excitement for imagination.
We don’t even have the luxury of assigning any of these players a certain fantasy identity that could distinguish them from one another. They ended up with worryingly similar numbers last year. Swift had 114 carries for 521 yards and eight touchdowns and had 46 receptions on 57 targets for 357 yards and two touchdowns over 13 games. Williams had 119 carries for 505 yards and two touchdowns and had 31 receptions on 35 targets for 236 yards and one touchdown over 14 games. He also worked behind RB Aaron Jones where Swift was still a rookie who competed with old Adrian Peterson.
I can easily see new head coach Dan Campbell signing up for the 2021 run, but that will likely be on a 50/50 committee backfield between both Swift and Williams. Swift’s ADP is currently at the start of Round 3, which is far too expensive an investment to have zero confidence that he will actually be the star to roll back for the Lions. Williams, on the other hand, will be drafted towards the end of Round 12 and could finish as well or better than Swift in 2021.
Russell Wilson – QB Seattle Seahawks
If you’ve followed the Fantasy Footballers for any length of time, you know they are advocates of late-round quarterback draft options. That said, there are some quarterbacks that will actually get off the board way too early, and Seattle’s QB Russell Wilson is a prime example of this.
His current ADP is at the beginning of the 8th round, which may not seem too exorbitant as a draft cost, but be careful. Wilson made the league shine in the first half of last year. In the first nine weeks he landed as a top 10 QB seven times and five of those games were as a top five producer. The wheels fell off in Week 10 and on, however, when he only saw QB1 status twice and ended up as QB2 or worse in the other six games.
Seattle is doubling its commitment to the run in 2021, which may have helped fuel Wilson’s off-season trade rumors. He’s an exceptional quarterback, and the desire to draw him in the 8th round as well is tempting. Instead of bringing in a quarterback so early that is likely to disappoint all season, you can look at another position to round out your roster. RBs Damien Harris and Mike Davis go off the board in the same round, as does WR Courtland Sutton. At this price, I would much rather have these parts. One quarterback I’d rather have on my team instead is Ryan Tannehill, who ended up as QB7 and will have both AJ Brown and Julio Jones this year. Better still, you can’t call him up until round 12.
Keep in mind that because of their ADP into the draft season, these players are considered failure candidates. Be sure to keep an eye on the rise or fall in ADP throughout the off-season so that you can get the most of your tips this season.